What subsequent after 20 years of struggle in Afghanistan? Anatol Lieven on the U.S.’ legacy and the Taliban’s rise

On August 30, 2021, a C-17 transport aircraft took off from Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, signaling the top of America’s longest struggle. It was a struggle that took the lives of at the very least 48,000 Afghan civilians, 2,461 U.S. service members, 66,000 Afghan nationwide army police, and 1,144 NATO allied service members. The Cost of War Project at Brown University estimates that the post-9/11 wars launched by the United States have resulted in nearly 1 million killed and greater than 38 million folks displaced, with the U.S. authorities having spent $6.four trillion and rising.

For a discovered perspective on what has been unfolding in Afghanistan, I turned to interview Dr. Anatol Lieven. Lieven is a senior analysis fellow on Russia and Europe on the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He was previously a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and within the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. From 1985 to 1998, Lieven labored as a British journalist in South Asia, the previous Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, and coated the wars in Afghanistan, Chechnya and the southern Caucasus.

James W. Carden: Let’s start with the individuals who launched the suicide assault on the airport on August 26. Who are the Islamic State within the Khorasan Province, or ISKP?

Anatol Lieven: They are a fairly motley bunch. The very first thing to notice is that they’re not Arabs. ISKP was not based by and their management isn’t made up of Arabs who’ve moved to Afghanistan from the Middle East. So they’re not, in that sense, an offshoot of ISIS. Instead, they’re one in all these native actions which has taken the identify of ISIS.

They’re made up of three important components:

The first are Pakistani – primarily Pashtun – militants belonging to the Pakistani Taliban. They have been pushed over the border again into Afghanistan by the Pakistan Army when it launched its offensive to crush the rebel in Pakistan lately.

The second main factor are the worldwide fighters in Afghanistan, lots of whom are sometimes from the previous Soviet Union: Chechens, Dagestanis, Uzbeks, along with some Arab fighters, who fled from Iraq and Syria.

The third factor are defectors from the Afghan Taliban, who defected for one motive or one other, generally as a result of they have been angered by Taliban negotiations with the West or by Taliban guarantees to not assist worldwide jihad.

But the principle factor it is best to learn about ISKP is that they’re dedicated to persevering with worldwide jihad. They’ve at all times made that completely clear, and certainly they must, as a result of their membership is made up of people that for apparent causes are dedicated to persevering with the fear campaigns within the former Soviet Union and in Pakistan.

ISKP can also be ferociously sectarian and anti-Shia and lately launched a string of dreadful assaults on Shia hospitals, faculties and markets in Afghanistan and in Pakistan as effectively. They’re intently linked to sectarian terrorist teams in Pakistan, which have been extensively alleged in flip to be supported by Saudi Arabia. So, they’re quite a lot of arduous males, when you like, who actually need to use Afghanistan as a base for worldwide jihad. There has been a really fierce rivalry between ISKP and the Afghan Taliban for energy and main battles between them. And actually, after I was final in Afghanistan, I used to be instructed that there had been de facto cooperation between the Taliban, the Afghan authorities forces and the U.S. Air Force in opposition to ISIS.

So that’s the place ISIS is coming from in Afghanistan.

Taliban fighters have fun the seize of territory throughout an August 2021 offensive that resulted within the militant group taking on a lot of Afghanistan, together with the capital Kabul.

JWC: In 2011, you wrote a really well-received e book on the area referred to as Pakistan: A Hard Country, so I suppose I’d like to grasp extra concerning the position that Pakistan has performed within the American defeat, and their relationship with ISKP and their persevering with position in supporting worldwide terrorism.

AL: Well, the Pakistani position is extraordinarily, extraordinarily difficult. People preserve asking me: Why did Pakistan play a double recreation over Afghanistan? And my reply is that they didn’t play a double recreation. They performed a single recreation, which was a Pakistani recreation. They pursued what they took to be Pakistan’s nationwide pursuits, which sadly conflicted with our personal or what we thought have been our personal in Afghanistan. What Pakistan has carried out fairly constantly all these years has been to provide shelter to the Afghan Taliban. The Afghan Taliban is made up of Afghans, mainly of Pashtuns intently associated to the Pashtuns of Pakistan, who make up a couple of fifth of the inhabitants and stay within the border areas.

And they’ve been constantly sheltered by Pakistan. And the explanation for that’s twofold actually. The first is that Pakistan wished a power in Afghanistan that will be attentive to Pakistan’s pursuits and needs, and above all, would by no means facet with India in opposition to Pakistan as earlier Afghan regimes had carried out. This was additionally primarily based on the evaluation, which I’ve to say has turned out to be correct, that we’d fail in Afghanistan—that the West wouldn’t keep the course and that we would depart in the end.

So that’s the primary motive. The second motive, and this has been completely obscured by a lot of the Western media. What folks there [in Pakistan] saved saying to me is, “look, in the 1980s, an outside imperial force, the Soviet Union, occupied Afghanistan. And everybody from our own government to the Americans, Saudis, everywhere, told us that it’s our duty to support the Afghan resistance against this, in the name of Islam. So we supported them. Now we have another outside, white imperial force occupying Afghanistan. And you tell us that it’s our duty to fight against the Afghan resistance and to support the puppet government in Kabul? Well, frankly, to hell with that, we will do what we always did. We will support our Afghan brothers in fighting against an alien, imperial occupation of their country.”

So what needs to be understood is that the Pakistan authorities, together with some inside its personal ranks and in components of the military, have been presiding over a inhabitants—at the very least in northern Pakistan—which was tremendously supportive of the Afghan Taliban. And when [Pervez] Musharraf, the then-military dictator, in 2003-2004 made a really restricted try beneath American stress to crack down, not on the Afghan Taliban as such, however on worldwide fighters just like the Arabs, Chechens and others affiliated with the Taliban within the Pakistani border areas, this set off a rebel which lasted for 15 years.

And it nonetheless goes on within the type of ISIS in Afghanistan and has price greater than 60,000 Pakistani civilian lives, 5,000 army lifeless, 1000’s of police, 5 generals, and so forth. Benazir Bhutto, a two-time prime minister of Pakistan, was assassinated in 2007, on account of that. And this illustrates the diploma of assist for the Afghan Taliban that you just even have in sections of society. But then it will get much more difficult as a result of finally, and after appreciable hesitation, the Pakistan Army cracked down very arduous certainly on the Pakistan rebels who name themselves the Pakistan Taliban whereas persevering with to shelter the Afghan Taliban.

And one of many explanation why you now have this bitter division between ISIS in Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban is that the Afghan Taliban sided with Pakistan in opposition to the Pakistani Taliban. And whereas they didn’t precisely battle them, they did an amazing deal to maintain sure areas of Pakistan quiet and stop them from becoming a member of the Islamist revolt.

So, Pakistan is mainly very blissful that the Taliban have received in Afghanistan however expects them to go on combating arduous in opposition to ISIS as a result of ISIS are mortal enemies of the current Pakistani state. And all I can say is that if that sounds difficult, it is difficult.

I feel a part of the issue with American and certainly British coverage in that a part of the world is that when you’re not ready to review and take care of excessive complexity and with continuous modifications of allegiance—when you’re not ready to deal with that—effectively, then you definitely shouldn’t be working in Afghanistan as a result of it’s an advanced place.

JWC: Is there a distinction between the Taliban of 2001 and the Taliban of 2021?

AL: I feel with regard to their worldwide habits, we are able to consider their ensures, for 2 causes. The first is that they’re not fools. And they’ve stated this to me themselves—not the highest management, clearly, however low-level Taliban have instructed me, “we’re not idiots; we know what happened to us as a result of 9/11. We were running Afghanistan, we conquered most of the country, we’d set up our state and then 9/11 kind of ruined it all for us. We’re not going to do that again, don’t worry.”

But the second and extra vital level is that they’ve made this promise, not simply to the US and the West; they’ve additionally made it to Russia, to China, to Pakistan, to Iran. And all of those international locations have a deep stake in opposing worldwide terrorism.

International Sunni Islamic terrorism threatens all of these international locations in several methods. The Taliban can not afford to alienate their complete neighborhood. If they try this, their regime actually is not going to final and they are going to be completely remoted and never simply economically. Remember, they don’t have any entry to the ocean. But additionally, you’ll then have a return to the 1990s wherein Russia and Iran will assist opposition actions inside Pakistan, and inside Afghanistan, in opposition to them. So I feel you’ll be able to belief them on that.

You also can belief them on cracking down on the heroin commerce, which they’ve additionally promised to do, as a result of they’ve carried out that earlier than: In 2000 and 2001, they did it with the hope of getting worldwide recognition.

So on these points, you’ll be able to belief them. Domestically, nevertheless, it’s a way more open query, as a result of there you’ve actually hardline ideologues who’re decided to reintroduce the type of Islamic Emirate that existed earlier than September 11.

US Air Force plane take off from Kabul airport in the course of the mass evacuation of American personnel following the seize of the Afghan capital by the Taliban.

JWC: Let’s flip to the American authorities’s position within the defeat. In a latest piece for the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, you wrote that American generals like H.R. McMaster, who served as President Donald Trump’s first nationwide safety adviser: “systematically misinformed multiple administrations, Congress, and the American people about the real state of the Afghan forces that they had created… The most important question Americans need to ask in the wake of the fall of Kabul is… what it is about the U.S. system that allowed these lies to pass with too little challenge.”

I’d like your individual ideas on that. How do you assume they obtained away with mendacity, as you say, systematically for twenty years?

AL: Well, this isn’t only a matter of my opinion. Indeed, that is completely documented within the stories of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction and as revealed in the Afghanistan Papers, within the Washington Post. So all of that is now a matter of report. I feel it’s actually two issues. First, I suppose we would have some sympathy with the army in that militaries don’t wish to lose and so they don’t essentially need to go to struggle within the first place. And I suppose to be charitable to them, one would possibly say that they have been mendacity to themselves in addition to to the remainder of us, which is feasible.

I feel additionally it is important to grasp army promotion buildings as effectively. This was a marketing campaign carried out in a profoundly, almost dilettantish manner by folks whose complete intuition was to get again to Washington, to crawl up one other rung of the army promotion ladder, and to do this you must be engaged on large weapons applications directed at China or Russia, that are completely irrelevant for Iraq or Afghanistan, however are very related certainly to the American military-industrial complicated and Congress.

Afghanistan was handled with a profound lack of actual curiosity and professionalism.

One should on no account excuse the American and British publics, the media and Congress, as a result of as one in all my colleagues identified, when you take a look at the principle American information channels, in the entire of 2020, between them, they talked about Afghanistan a mean of 5 instances on their lead information applications that yr. So if the general public and the media and Congress are usually not going to look significantly into what’s happening, then the generals will get away with telling folks what they assume will cowl their very own backs.

*This article was produced by Globetrotter in partnership with the American Committee for U.S.-Russia Accord; the interview with Anatol Lieven has been edited for readability and size.


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