What subsequent after 20 years of warfare in Afghanistan? Anatol Lieven on the U.S.’ legacy and the Taliban’s rise

On August 30, 2021, a C-17 transport aircraft took off from Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, signaling the tip of America’s longest warfare. It was a warfare that took the lives of not less than 48,000 Afghan civilians, 2,461 U.S. service members, 66,000 Afghan nationwide army police, and 1,144 NATO allied service members. The Cost of War Project at Brown University estimates that the post-9/11 wars launched by the United States have resulted in nearly 1 million killed and greater than 38 million individuals displaced, with the U.S. authorities having spent $6.four trillion and rising.

For a discovered perspective on what has been unfolding in Afghanistan, I turned to interview Dr. Anatol Lieven. Lieven is a senior analysis fellow on Russia and Europe on the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He was previously a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and within the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. From 1985 to 1998, Lieven labored as a British journalist in South Asia, the previous Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, and coated the wars in Afghanistan, Chechnya and the southern Caucasus.

James W. Carden: Let’s start with the individuals who launched the suicide assault on the airport on August 26. Who are the Islamic State within the Khorasan Province, or ISKP?

Anatol Lieven: They are a fairly motley bunch. The very first thing to notice is that they’re not Arabs. ISKP was not based by and their management is just not made up of Arabs who’ve moved to Afghanistan from the Middle East. So they’re not, in that sense, an offshoot of ISIS. Instead, they’re one in all these native actions which has taken the title of ISIS.

They’re made up of three principal parts:

The first are Pakistani – primarily Pashtun – militants belonging to the Pakistani Taliban. They have been pushed over the border again into Afghanistan by the Pakistan Army when it launched its offensive to crush the riot in Pakistan lately.

The second main aspect are the worldwide fighters in Afghanistan, a lot of whom are sometimes from the previous Soviet Union: Chechens, Dagestanis, Uzbeks, along with some Arab fighters, who fled from Iraq and Syria.

The third aspect are defectors from the Afghan Taliban, who defected for one cause or one other, typically as a result of they have been angered by Taliban negotiations with the West or by Taliban guarantees to not assist worldwide jihad.

But the primary factor it’s best to learn about ISKP is that they’re dedicated to persevering with worldwide jihad. They’ve all the time made that completely clear, and certainly they must, as a result of their membership is made up of people that for apparent causes are dedicated to persevering with the fear campaigns within the former Soviet Union and in Pakistan.

ISKP can be ferociously sectarian and anti-Shia and lately launched a string of dreadful assaults on Shia hospitals, colleges and markets in Afghanistan and in Pakistan as nicely. They’re carefully linked to sectarian terrorist teams in Pakistan, which have been extensively alleged in flip to be supported by Saudi Arabia. So, they’re quite a lot of exhausting males, should you like, who actually wish to use Afghanistan as a base for worldwide jihad. There has been a really fierce rivalry between ISKP and the Afghan Taliban for energy and main battles between them. And the truth is, after I was final in Afghanistan, I used to be advised that there had been de facto cooperation between the Taliban, the Afghan authorities forces and the U.S. Air Force towards ISIS.

So that’s the place ISIS is coming from in Afghanistan.

Taliban fighters have a good time the seize of territory throughout an August 2021 offensive that resulted within the militant group taking up a lot of Afghanistan, together with the capital Kabul.

JWC: In 2011, you wrote a really well-received e-book on the area known as Pakistan: A Hard Country, so I assume I’d like to know extra in regards to the position that Pakistan has performed within the American defeat, and their relationship with ISKP and their persevering with position in supporting worldwide terrorism.

AL: Well, the Pakistani position is extraordinarily, extraordinarily sophisticated. People preserve asking me: Why did Pakistan play a double recreation over Afghanistan? And my reply is that they didn’t play a double recreation. They performed a single recreation, which was a Pakistani recreation. They pursued what they took to be Pakistan’s nationwide pursuits, which sadly conflicted with our personal or what we thought have been our personal in Afghanistan. What Pakistan has achieved fairly constantly all these years has been to present shelter to the Afghan Taliban. The Afghan Taliban is made up of Afghans, mainly of Pashtuns carefully associated to the Pashtuns of Pakistan, who make up a couple of fifth of the inhabitants and stay within the border areas.

And they’ve been constantly sheltered by Pakistan. And the rationale for that’s twofold actually. The first is that Pakistan needed a pressure in Afghanistan that will be conscious of Pakistan’s pursuits and desires, and above all, would by no means aspect with India towards Pakistan as earlier Afghan regimes had achieved. This was additionally based mostly on the evaluation, which I’ve to say has turned out to be correct, that we’d fail in Afghanistan—that the West wouldn’t keep the course and that we would go away ultimately.

So that’s the primary cause. The second cause, and this has been completely obscured by a lot of the Western media. What individuals there [in Pakistan] saved saying to me is, “look, in the 1980s, an outside imperial force, the Soviet Union, occupied Afghanistan. And everybody from our own government to the Americans, Saudis, everywhere, told us that it’s our duty to support the Afghan resistance against this, in the name of Islam. So we supported them. Now we have another outside, white imperial force occupying Afghanistan. And you tell us that it’s our duty to fight against the Afghan resistance and to support the puppet government in Kabul? Well, frankly, to hell with that, we will do what we always did. We will support our Afghan brothers in fighting against an alien, imperial occupation of their country.”

So what needs to be understood is that the Pakistan authorities, together with some inside its personal ranks and in elements of the military, have been presiding over a inhabitants—not less than in northern Pakistan—which was tremendously supportive of the Afghan Taliban. And when [Pervez] Musharraf, the then-military dictator, in 2003-2004 made a really restricted try beneath American strain to crack down, not on the Afghan Taliban as such, however on worldwide fighters just like the Arabs, Chechens and others affiliated with the Taliban within the Pakistani border areas, this set off a riot which lasted for 15 years.

And it nonetheless goes on within the type of ISIS in Afghanistan and has value greater than 60,000 Pakistani civilian lives, 5,000 army lifeless, hundreds of police, 5 generals, and so forth. Benazir Bhutto, a two-time prime minister of Pakistan, was assassinated in 2007, on account of that. And this illustrates the diploma of assist for the Afghan Taliban that you just even have in sections of society. But then it will get much more sophisticated as a result of ultimately, and after appreciable hesitation, the Pakistan Army cracked down very exhausting certainly on the Pakistan rebels who name themselves the Pakistan Taliban whereas persevering with to shelter the Afghan Taliban.

And one of many explanation why you now have this bitter division between ISIS in Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban is that the Afghan Taliban sided with Pakistan towards the Pakistani Taliban. And whereas they didn’t precisely combat them, they did an awesome deal to maintain sure areas of Pakistan quiet and forestall them from becoming a member of the Islamist revolt.

So, Pakistan is principally very blissful that the Taliban have gained in Afghanistan however expects them to go on combating exhausting towards ISIS as a result of ISIS are mortal enemies of the current Pakistani state. And all I can say is that if that sounds sophisticated, it is sophisticated.

I believe a part of the issue with American and certainly British coverage in that a part of the world is that should you’re not ready to check and take care of excessive complexity and with continuous modifications of allegiance—should you’re not ready to deal with that—nicely, then you definitely shouldn’t be working in Afghanistan as a result of it’s an advanced place.

JWC: Is there a distinction between the Taliban of 2001 and the Taliban of 2021?

AL: I believe with regard to their worldwide habits, we will consider their ensures, for 2 causes. The first is that they’re not fools. And they’ve mentioned this to me themselves—not the highest management, clearly, however low-level Taliban have advised me, “we’re not idiots; we know what happened to us as a result of 9/11. We were running Afghanistan, we conquered most of the country, we’d set up our state and then 9/11 kind of ruined it all for us. We’re not going to do that again, don’t worry.”

But the second and extra necessary level is that they’ve made this promise, not simply to the US and the West; they’ve additionally made it to Russia, to China, to Pakistan, to Iran. And all of those international locations have a deep stake in opposing worldwide terrorism.

International Sunni Islamic terrorism threatens all of these international locations in several methods. The Taliban can not afford to alienate their complete neighborhood. If they try this, their regime actually won’t final and they are going to be completely remoted and never simply economically. Remember, they haven’t any entry to the ocean. But additionally, you’ll then have a return to the 1990s by which Russia and Iran will assist opposition actions inside Pakistan, and inside Afghanistan, towards them. So I believe you possibly can belief them on that.

You may belief them on cracking down on the heroin commerce, which they’ve additionally promised to do, as a result of they’ve achieved that earlier than: In 2000 and 2001, they did it with the hope of getting worldwide recognition.

So on these points, you possibly can belief them. Domestically, nevertheless, it’s a way more open query, as a result of there you’ve got actually hardline ideologues who’re decided to reintroduce the form of Islamic Emirate that existed earlier than September 11.

US Air Force plane take off from Kabul airport in the course of the mass evacuation of American personnel following the seize of the Afghan capital by the Taliban.

JWC: Let’s flip to the American authorities’s position within the defeat. In a latest piece for the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, you wrote that American generals like H.R. McMaster, who served as President Donald Trump’s first nationwide safety adviser: “systematically misinformed multiple administrations, Congress, and the American people about the real state of the Afghan forces that they had created… The most important question Americans need to ask in the wake of the fall of Kabul is… what it is about the U.S. system that allowed these lies to pass with too little challenge.”

I’d like your personal ideas on that. How do you suppose they received away with mendacity, as you say, systematically for 20 years?

AL: Well, this isn’t only a matter of my opinion. Indeed, that is totally documented within the stories of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction and as revealed in the Afghanistan Papers, within the Washington Post. So all of that is now a matter of report. I believe it’s actually two issues. First, I suppose we’d have some sympathy with the army in that militaries don’t wish to lose they usually don’t essentially wish to go to warfare within the first place. And I suppose to be charitable to them, one may say that they have been mendacity to themselves in addition to to the remainder of us, which is feasible.

I believe it is usually important to know army promotion constructions as nicely. This was a marketing campaign carried out in a profoundly, almost dilettantish method by individuals whose complete intuition was to get again to Washington, to crawl up one other rung of the army promotion ladder, and to try this it’s important to be engaged on enormous weapons packages directed at China or Russia, that are completely irrelevant for Iraq or Afghanistan, however are very related certainly to the American military-industrial advanced and Congress.

Afghanistan was handled with a profound lack of actual curiosity and professionalism.

One should under no circumstances excuse the American and British publics, the media and Congress, as a result of as one in all my colleagues identified, should you take a look at the primary American information channels, in the entire of 2020, between them, they talked about Afghanistan a median of 5 occasions on their lead information packages that yr. So if the general public and the media and Congress aren’t going to look significantly into what’s happening, then the generals will get away with telling individuals what they suppose will cowl their very own backs.

*This article was produced by Globetrotter in partnership with the American Committee for U.S.-Russia Accord; the interview with Anatol Lieven has been edited for readability and size.

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