Who is benefitting from the Poland-Belarus border disaster?

Over the previous few weeks, tensions alongside the Belarusian-Polish border have escalated, as hundreds of asylum seekers attempt to cross into Poland, a member of the European Union. Belarus’s lax visa course of has lured many individuals from war-torn nations within the Middle East hoping to make it to EU territory.

When Poland deployed its navy to the border to cease the entry of asylum-seekers, hundreds of males, girls and kids had been stranded within the chilly on the Belarusian aspect of the border and have become a political soccer between Belarus and Poland.

The disaster and the parallel escalation of tensions between Poland, Belarus and Russia have served governments on all sides within the pursuit of their overseas and home agendas.

By now it’s clear that the humanitarian catastrophe on the border was manufactured by Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko, who has been beneath sanctions and in isolation by the EU since final yr’s flawed presidential elections.

The Belarusian authorities directed the circulate of asylum seekers in direction of the borders of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, which have refused to just accept the outcomes of the vote and are at the moment internet hosting the majority of Belarusian political refugees and members of the quasi-government in exile. Lukashenko’s want to confront an open subversion of his regime by these nations is evident.

But it isn’t solely its neighbours to the west that Minsk is searching for to strain. The border disaster is a part of its bigger technique to blackmail each the West and Russia with the prospect of a full-out international battle.

Belarus is the closest ally of Russia and formally part of an entity often known as the Union of Russia and Belarus. The latter exists largely on paper, but it surely does present for a typical defence coverage and free motion between the 2 nations, which suggests the Belarusian border with Poland and the 2 Baltic states is successfully Russia’s exterior frontier separating its safety zone from the realm of NATO. Therefore, any battle at this border by extension turns into a battle between Russia and NATO, which is strictly how the far-right authorities in Poland is now attempting to border it.

In a latest interview, Lukashenko additionally went so far as threatening to dam the Yamal pipeline, which provides Russian fuel to the EU through Belarus. On Tuesday, Russian information company TASS reported that Belarusian oil pipeline operator Gomeltransneft quickly restricted oil provides to Poland by the Druzhba pipeline after beginning unplanned upkeep.

Yet, many hawkish commentators within the West and Eastern Europe have pointed a finger at Moscow because the instigator of the border disaster and claimed that Lukashenko’s threats will need to have been sanctioned by the Kremlin. Simultaneously, senior US officers made radical claims about Russia build up troops with the view of invading Ukraine.

The logic of those accusations is tough to fathom. Russia finds itself in the course of a four-month interval, throughout which the German vitality regulator ought to certify Nord Stream 2 – a pipeline that can ship fuel to the EU immediately, bypassing Ukraine and Belarus. On Tuesday, information got here in that Germany is suspending the certification course of on technical grounds – a move that can additional delay the venture and might be interpreted by the Kremlin as a intentionally hostile act

It stays unclear why Russia would need to stage a border disaster immediately threatening Germany (the place most asylum seekers are heading) and concurrently invade Ukraine throughout this very interval. Isn’t Nord Stream 2 designed as a super-weapon that can put Ukraine on its knees by depriving it of fuel transit revenues, as the identical hawkish commentators have been claiming for years? If so, why invade Ukraine now?

Conversely, the logic of upsetting Russia into reckless behaviour close to Belarus and Ukraine with the intention to derail Nord Stream 2 appears to be like extra compelling. This could be within the curiosity of the US, which has tried to strain Germany into abandoning the near-finished venture.

At least the Russian navy build-up round Ukraine does look like a response to what Russia sees because the West crossing the purple traces, which Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined earlier this yr in his state of the nation handle.

In an interview with Rossiya TV channel on November 13, he clearly tied the build-up to the unscheduled arrival of American warships within the Black Sea, mixed with flyovers by nuclear-capable bombers on October 20. To the latter incidents, Russia responded by sending its bombers to fly over Belarus in shut proximity to Poland.

Ukraine has additionally seen an escalation of tensions. In October, studies surfaced of the Ukrainian military utilizing Turkish-built Bayaraktar drones towards Russian-backed forces in Donbas. There can also be an ongoing authorized assault towards Putin’s man in Ukraine, Viktor Medvedchuk, and the clampdown on his media empire, which was accused of selling Russian narratives.

Additionally, there’s a Polish angle within the ongoing disaster. It serves as a helpful distraction for the far-right Polish authorities, which finds itself entangled in a bitter battle with the EU over the rule of regulation. Last month, Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal invalidated some provisions of the EU Treaty by ruling that they had been incompatible with the nation’s structure. That choice is posing the best problem to the integrity of the union since Brexit.

The disaster can also be a possibility for the Polish authorities to current itself as a “defender” of “Europe’s borders” towards a perceived invasion from the East. It can also be a possibility for the right-wing authorities to incite extra xenophobia within the Polish society. Racist anti-immigrant tirades are a staple of Polish far proper politics.

But whereas the Polish authorities is embracing anti-Russian rhetoric and posturing, its home politics intently resemble the Kremlin’s. In degrading the rule of regulation and regularly undermining the independence of the judiciary, the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) appears to be taking a web page out of Moscow’s playbook. As if copycatting Putin’s technique, it is usually aggressively selling “traditional values”, which incorporates homophobic laws and – outstripping Russia on that entrance – “LGBT-free zones” declared in lots of municipalities in addition to a flat ban on abortions.

A favorite Kremlin tactic is supporting poisonous government-controlled media, which denigrates the opposition and circulates fakes – one thing the PiS has additionally indulged in.

The smokescreen of geopolitics has lengthy allowed Poland and different nations in Eastern Europe to get away with their infringements on democratic process and human rights. They excel in promoting Russia’s mythological otherness and its allegedly intrinsic belligerence. The actuality although is that Putin’s regime, unrestrained by rule of regulation constraints that include EU membership, is only a grotesque instance of the far-right authoritarian pattern that’s engulfing the whole East European area.

The spectre of a hostile Russia and hassle at Europe’s jap borders additionally advantages sure political quarters within the West. They give fodder to lobbyists and military-industrial advanced teams which promote battle to encourage elevated defence spending. They gasoline divisions and fears of conflagration, undermining the work of those that genuinely stand for advancing democracy and liberalism in post-communist areas.

This struggle trade is perpetuating dictatorships, reminiscent of Putin’s and Lukashenko’s, by always gifting them with alternatives to escalate belligerent rhetoric and raise the rallying flag of a risk towards the nation.

In the top, those that undergo the results of manufactured crises and escalations of tensions are atypical individuals who need to bear the brunt of far-right politics and war-centred economies.

The views expressed on this article are the creator’s personal and don’t essentially replicate Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.


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